演講者：Henry Chan
PhD student
Stanford University, CA
Collaboratory for Research on Global Projects
演講題目：Risk-Benefit Rebalancing Model in PPP Infrastructure Development
時間：97年8月4日(一)14:00-15:00
地點：營管所視聽教室(工程五館四樓A413)
聯絡人：陳屏甫 0920123271
演講摘要：
In order to alleviate their fiscal burdens, many governments have invited international private investors to participate in infrastructure
development through schemes such as PFI, BOT, and PPP. Obsolescing bargain scholars suggest ex-ante favorable concessions terms are often
offset by ex-post renegotiation initiated by the host government. On the other hand, other studies have shown that opportunistic private parties
can 'hold-up' the host government and renegotiate for more favorable terms during the construction period. Studies have found that more than half
of PPP infrastructure projects in Latin America from the 90’s were renegotiated. Past literature has focused predominately on bi-lateral
opportunism as the explanation for ex-post renegotiation. This paper provides the framework for an alternative explanation for the high
renegotiation rate in PPP projects. Instead of treating the contract amount as a rigid project value, real option analysis is used to
determine the evolving real option values of a number of sample projects. It is hypothesized that as the risk-benefit balance of the
project changes at various development stages due to progress and new information, each stakeholder reevaluates its relative risk-benefit ratio
compared to the other party. If the perceived real option value, based on the relative risk-benefit ratio, becomes excessively favorable to either
side, the other party will either initiate renegotiation or change its behavior unilaterally in an attempt to rebalance the risks and benefits
shared between them. The new perspective presented in this study views renegotiations as expected, necessary and efficient means to restore
equitable levels of risks and benefits to both governments and investors, instead of viewing them as opportunistic behavior by either
side. The findings of this interdisciplinary study will integrate knowledge across multiple disciplines: construction management, finance, political
science, behavioral economics, and international law. |